analysis, bret baier will jump in. i'm shepard smith for the journalists of fox news. thanks for having us into your place tonight. this is america's election headquarters. >> bill: "the o'reilly factor" is on. tonight: >> we're not going to be successful in replacing an economy light weight if we choose an economy light weight to be our nominee. >> could be a big night for mitt romney. what does it all mean? meantime the governor is getting-what would make me happy free birth control. >> if you are looking for stuff you don't have to pay for vote the other guy. >> charles krauthammer. >> all i did [inaudible] we call it moneyed in the palm. >> the factor continues its reporting on the massive entitlement spending. even as the debt situation gets worse. crowley, colmes and stossel on that. >> all right. what is your. [gunfire] >> there is gunshots. >> you just heard gunshots? >> unarmed 17-year-old gunned

down in florida. it could be entirely legal. is it legal is investigating. >> bill: caution. you are about to enter the no spin zone. the factor begins right now. captions by closed captioning services >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. we will have the talking points memo in the second segment this evening. first, fox news on the illinois primary. let's go to bret baier. standing by in chicago. i understand the exit polling shows mitt romney out in front in illinois. correct? >> bret: that's right, bill. the polls are all closed in illinois. mitt romney has a solid lead over rick santorum. the decision desk is saying the race is too close to call. far behind newt gingrich and ron paul they are battling it out for third place. obviously a win tonight would be a major victory for romney in this delegate rich state.

54 did he goes here. they are decided by congressional districts. if there is 18 congressional districts here. the real question is how it will break down. looks at this point, bill, according to exit polls that mitt romney is going to have a good night it is 18 individual races. and when you get to the downstate, that's where you see some strength for rick santorum. so, the 54 delegates on the line will be able to break down at the end but even right now on the top line number, the percentage we can't make a call because it's too close to call according to the raw vote and exit poll data that our decision desk is looking like. >> bill: go to carl cammeron headquarters in illinois. i understand the governor thinks he has won in illinois. is that correct, carl? >> well, i talked with him earlier this afternoon, bill. he was extremely confident and said he would win here tonight. and as he has for several weeks went on to say is he going to win the nomination as well. there was a real confidence. in talking to romney aids as they watch the exit polls in

anticipation what happens from the early returns. they are now fairly confident they will walk out of here with a win. watch for romney tonight to sort of put his foot a little heavier on the accelerator. he will start talking about the fact that he is now going to be the nominee and decision time for some of his rivals to start thinking about what they are going to do. is he going to suggest that he has got it wrapped up. that conservatives have begun to coalesce behind him tonight. there is exit poll information that suggests he has been quite competitive. earlier he was leading with tea party votes according to exit polls in illinois. he will say conservatives are beginning to join the romney camp in larger numbers. it's time for his rivals to start seriously thinking whether they should stay in the race or not. that's where romney will be a significant in anticipation of the win. >> bill: that's his speech he will make later on. let's go to mike emanuel who is in santorum headquarters. does rick santorum believe he is not going to win in illinois? >> bill, they do seem to

believe that they are going to lose illinois. his chief strategist was down here a few minutes ago talking about essentially comparing how they feel like santorum is running better in key battleground states against president obama compared to mitt romney saying that romney is winning in places that he will not win in the general election. and so clearly coming home to pennsylvania to try to pivot from illinois to try to get back on their message in the past week or so we have seen rick santorum get bogged down talking about whether english should be the official language in puerto rico there was a snippet of him saying "i don't care about the unemployment rate. they want to get back on message which is freed. see the banner behind me. president from illinois gave a big speech here, gettysburg address which was all about freedom. this is about shoring up his home state. he obviously have a packed house in his home state. pivot from illinois and saying there is a long race ahead, bill. >> bill: i want to be very clear, mike. the santorum people are not

putting forth in any way, shape, or form that they're going to win tonight. they basically think they are going to lose at this jupg temperature shortly after 8:00 eastern time. >> that's right. all the body language everything there saying talking about a long race ahead. move on from illinois that is a state mitt romney is not going to win in the fall. they are focusing on the places where they're competing and doing well and they believe they could win. >> bill: big weekend coming up on saturday good situation for rick santorum. bret baier, wrap the a block up with you and tell the audience that when fox news does make its projection we will, you know, put you over me there. you replacing me, that puts new a very, very difficult position. so, you know, just think about that. >> bret: tough spot to be in. >> bill: think your presentation and how to do this so a smaive amount of people don't turn the television off. >> bret: i agree with you, bill. thank you for that here's the deal. the race is too close to call.

when we have a call, we will get in, we will get out, and you can continue your live broadcast tonight unimpeded. >> bill: there you go. guys we really appreciate it thank you very much. next on the run down, americans who want free stuff, are they becoming a major problem for the nation? and, later, the army sergeant suspected of murdering 16 afghan civilians has had trouble with the law in the past. is it legal investigating upcoming. [ male announcer ] fighting pepperoni heartburn and pepperoni breath? fight both fast with new tums freshers! concentrated relief that goes to work in seconds and freshens breath. new tums freshers. ♪ tum...tum...tum...tum... tums! ♪ [ male announcer ] fast relief, fresh breath, all in a pocket sized pack.

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>> bill: impact segment tonight the talking points memo. unfortunately the campaign of 2012 has spent a lot of time on things that don't really matter. the republic candidates are trying to convince voters that they are very conservative guys. okay, fine. we are ready to believe you. then there is the contraception deal. whether the president is a muslim, that's still around. another nonsensical stuff. all of that obscures very important, i think dangerous situation. that is the millions of americans who want free stuff from the government. let's begin with nancy pelosi's daughter alexandra who is a liberal film maker. however, she crossed into very interesting territory which when she interviewed some welfare recipients. >> so what do you get from the government? tell me everything you get from the government. >> all i get stamps, public assistance, medicaid.

we call that money in the palm. we call it money in the palm. >> there is a sign behind you that says waverly job center. do you have any intention of going in to get a job or get the food stamps. >> not looking for a job. maybe a career but not a job. how are you doing? you are looking good today. >> all you are looking for is a date. >> that's true. single. ready to mingle. >> bill: so i guess now we have to pay for that guy's dating life, right? not looking for a job, maybe a career. get a clue. get a job first and then you get the career. as the factor has reported 22% of americans are currently receiving some kind of government entitlement. that's 67 million people. the truth is we can't afford it the country can't afford it we don't have the money to pay for everybody's birth control or dating life. on monday, mitt romney was campaigning in peoria, illinois. entitlements came up. >> so you are like forcier freedom and all this stuff.

>> absolutely. >> pursuit of happiness. do you know what would make me happy? free birth control. >> if you are looking for free stuff you don't have to pay for, vote for the other guy. that's what he is all about. okay? [cheers] >> bill: mr. romney did the country a favor by sharply drawing a contrast between himself and president obama. at this point mr. obama created a scenario that actually encourages entitlement society. he has said quite clearly that the rich are not paying their fair share. that ensign united states that everybody else is getting hosed and that the government should be giving away things to make up for the inequity at this time. that's the insinuation. many of the nations are supporting that point of view. seiu board member stephan learner said this: >> it's the moment where we can come together and put

millions of people in the street. a moment where we can come together and talk about shutting down shareholders meetings where people don't have a voice. i think there has never been a more exciting time in my 30 years of organizing to imagine building the kind of movement that can transform the country, that can really talk about redistributing wealth and power. >> bill: mr. learner wants the forced reredistribution of assets. if the progressive forces prevail we will become a quasisocialistic nation and our debt will continue at record levels. in my opinion that's dangerous as all get out. and that's the memo. now, reaction with us a barack and hard place duo monica crowley and alan colmes. >> where do i begin? means of production by the state. we are not talking about socialism. lowest tax rates since 1950. the idea simply to bring it back to something that's reasonable. free birth control, most people don't get free birth control. a small percentage of people

do. that's a lot cheaper than paying for unwanted children which the taxpayer pays for when there are unwanted children. >> bill: a lot cheaper to pay for. >> paying for kids coming into this society not wanted that -- >> bill: i keep myself in pretty good shape, would you say that colmes. >> we have never had man on man. >> bill: we did you wouldn't be sitting there. [ laughter ] i keep myself in good shape because i don't want to have a heart attack and i don't want to have a stroke. i don't want to have the government have to come in and pay my bills for me. but, in your line of thinking the government should pay for my gym membership because it's cheaper than me having a heart attack. >> a lot of the entitlements the country is aging. people are older. more people getting social security that they paid into. >> bill: doesn't count social security. >> heritage fowdges numbers counting social security and medicare. >> bill: that 65 million is not counting social security. we are citing the bureau of

labor statistics, all right? now, when you hear the guy say, hey, i'm not looking for a job, i'm looking for a career. is he not looking for anything. >> is he looking for a date. >> bill: is he looking for handout. that's what he is looking for. >> yeah. >> bill: colmes, you would agree with that. >> very good theater that one guy. >> bill: this is a liberal filmmaker. she wasn't putting words in these people's mouths. i believe that is growing. as i pointed out, because of the insinuation that the wealthy affluent americans have done something wrong. they are not doing what they should do, not paying their fair share so, therefore, everybody else should get a little more. a little taste as they say in the mafia. >> this is the progressive that has been perpetuated by the left for decades. the reason we are in this position now, bill, where we have a growing entitlement society is because for decades the left has put these massive redistributionist pillars in place. social security. medicare. >> bill: now they are taking

root. >> now obama care. they have been in root for decades except for obama care more recent. the whole point of it is to redistribute the wealth. encourage people not to rely on themselves and not on their individual rights and not on their own sufficiency. but to rely on the state. this has been deliberate move by the left for many decades culminating in the far left running the government to create a permanent dependent cloud. >> bill: here is the deal. you have a very progressive president elected, all right, who may be reelected. it is going to be very, very close. i'm here to tell you, monica, this culture of where is mine? give me, has taken root in this country. it is stronger now than in my lifetime. why? why? >> because the leftist project have succeeded and what it has done is actually changed the american cycley. that's why some. >> why has it changed the

american cycley. >> if you have to pay for something or the government saying i'm going to cradle to grave you. take care of all your cradle to grave needs, you don't have to pay anything. which is the more tempting for human nature? >> bill: i still don't understand why. let me get with colmes. to your credit, you don't take any government stuff. you don't get food stamps or anything, right? >> not yet. >> bill: you never have. >> yes. i have never taken government. >> bill: you have earned your own way. >> i have gotten a job. >> bill: tell me why this mind set has taken root? why? >> this is something that is not blameable to obama. that has gone on for decades in 1965. >> bill: now it's prospering to a point never before seen. >> because of a number of reasons. aging population. >> bill: aging population, bull. it's a mind set. >> i disagree with that in 1965 when medicare started quarter didn't have insurance. >> bill: you keep taking it back into what people have paid into.

they paid into medicare and social security. you are obscuring the and purposely so. you are obscuring the debate by pointing to stuff that's irrelevant. here. >> that's included in these numbers. >> bill: why is the entitlement mind set that you saw there give me birth control. give me. >> i believe that represents a mind set. that is cherry picking people in a nice theatrical film. >> let me answer the question. >> bill: thank you. >> i think the left has been successful in taking the concept of a reasonable social safety net, which i think all of us agree in the richest nation in the country we should have for people who can't care for themselves. they have taken that concept, bill and turned it into a way of life. they have sold it. they have expanded the number of people who have access to these programs. whether it's the elderly, the poor. now obama care, everybody is going to have a hand in the government program. narcotics, entitlements are narcotics. once you get people addicted to the narcotic it's very difficult to come off. >> bill: we have got to run. live show here and the

election. my mother and father would have never taken a dime from the federal government. >> right. >> no matter what. >> right. >> they lived in the depression, right, when they had food lines and they -- they would work. they would never take anything. that's gone now. >> nobody -- is there nobody needy and should take advantage? >> bill: they were needy, colmes back then they wouldn't take it? >> people not suffering who don't need government now. >> what you are getting who-to-is a sense of shame. >> different mind set and look at the world. >> correct. i totally agree. >> bill: got to go. direct interestly ahead, americans are fed up with the war in afghanistan. but, will they support aggressive military action against iran? and, later, charles krauthammer wrap up the political day with mitt romney ahead in illinois right now. we're coming right back. this is $100,000.

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>> bill: unresolved problem segment tonight. setbacks have southward the public on the. 53% voters support the complete pullout of u.s. forces from afghanistan. just 31% are opposed to that bill o'reilly.com poll which is non-civic asks is the afghan war worth fighting anymore? 92% of factor viewers say no. just will% say yes. that is an amazing return. as you may know, there is another military situation possibly brewing, action against iran. joining us is congressman keith ellison if from minnesota. if it fail would you develop action to stop the iranians from developing a nuclear weapon. >> no, i wouldn't. i would have to know much much more than that at this point, bill, what we know now is that neither israeli or american military experts have come to

the conclusion that iran has decided to build a bomb. then their conclusion is that if and when that conclusion is arrived at by iranian's leadership it will take a year to develop one. then take years to come up with delivery system. i'm not on your show saying i'm going to authorize military action. there is a long ways before that we need diplomacy. >> bill: they are trying bously everybody is trying diplomacy. they are never going to get and you know this conclusive evidence on either side about what the iranians are doing. they do it in secret. far underground. israelis believe that they are very close to having some kind of nuclear weapon that they don't necessary solid to put on a missile but they can put in a suitcase and put it in tel aviv. so, i know what you are saying but it's a risky proposition

to start military action when you can't convince the american people like wmd's were in iraq. we said they were there and we went and we couldn't find them. there is going to be that mind set of you better show me. it's going to be impossible to show anybody. if they do develop the nuclear weapon, congressman, as you know it's too late. >> well, let me tell you this. the fact is is that inspections are going on. >> bill: no. they have barred most of the -- they have barred the key inspections as you know and they went over there two weeks ago the u.n. inspectors and the iranians said you can't go in over there exactly what saddam hussein did. let him come into the country you can go there but not come here. they don't have unfettered access you know that. >> here is what i do know that martin dempsy, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff have said that war with iran would be destabilizing. he said that there is no. >> bill: of course it would be. >> it would be far worse -- it would be far worse than allowing diplomacy to move forward. we have had about a sum total

of about 45 minutes. >> bill: let me ask. >> 45 minutes of diplomacy in the last 40 years, bill. >> bill: that's on your dime with barack obama. if you don't think diplomacy has been there. he has had three years. it's on your president. not your president but my president, too. i'm not here to debate that issue. >> bill: is it more dangerous for the iranians to have a nuclear weapon, all right? or for the world to be destabilized which i agree with you and general dempsy would happen if the were military action against iran? which is more dangerous iran having a nuke or destabilization i think it's more destabilizing to have a catastrophic war across the middle east. >> bill: that's what i thought you were going to say you are honest man that's why you are here. you would be willing to trade no military action and we will try to contain iran when they

get the nuclear bomb or nuclear device. >> you are already downtown block and we haven't stepped out of the house. you are already down the block and we haven't stepped out of the house. >> we absolutely have stepped out of the house. they have the scientists working on them. the uranium in place. they won't let the u.n. inspectors in to see what they are doing. come on. >> invite martin dempsy on your show. you will learn different from what you just said fact of the matter is. >> bill: martin dempsy has not said anything like that. >> they don't have a weapon. they haven't made a decision to do one. >> bill: how would you know they made a decision to not do one? how would you know that? >> i'm glad you asked. we have satellite technology. we have technology. >> bill: they are underground. the satellites can't penetrate the earth. they are underground. we have inspectors going on. >> bill: they won't let them go in. they haven't. they went two weeks ago and they wouldn't let them go in. >> i'm sorry, i'm not going to base a war on a maybe.

4,409 americans are dead because somebody -- >> bill: the reason we like you as a guest is because you are an honest man. i will point to history the same mind set was taken when dealing with nazi, germany. we don't believe they are going to do this and do that and they absolutely did everything. >> i have got to tell you in world war ii, they attacked pearl harbor, that would be enough. >> bill: no, this is the german theater not the japanese. >> i'm just telling you you are bringing up the world war ii conflict. our leaders there took the lives of american servicemen and women so seriously that they didn't rest on a gamble. and that's the kind of leadership that i hope to be. >> bill: now instead of a pearl harbor attack and a nuke attack and that's a whole different deal. congressman, always good to debated with you. thank you. >> thank you. >> bill: charles krauthammer will run down the illinois vote tonight and what it means in the big picture.

and, is it legal? on the american sergeant who is accused of massacring 16 afghan civilians. this guy has been in trouble before. we hope you stay tuned to those reports. heartbeat, and that it put me at 5-times greater risk of a stroke. i was worried. i worried about my wife, and my family. bill has the mos common type of atrial fiillation, or afib. it's not caused by a heart valve problem. he was taking warfarin, but i've put him on pradaxa instead. in a clinical trial, pradaxa 150 mgs reduced stroke risk 35% more than warfarin without the need for regular blood tests. i sure was glad to hear that. pradaxa can cause serious, sometimes fatal, bleeding. don't take pradaxa if you have abnormal bleeding, and seek immediate medical care for unexpected signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. pradaxa may increase your bleeding risk if you're 75 or older, have a bleeding condition like stomach ulcers, or take aspirin, nsaids, or bloodthinners, or if you have kidney problems,

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>> bill: fox news ready to call the illinois primary. bret baier standing by in chicago. what's going on, bret? >> bret: hey, bill, fox news can now project that mitt romney will win the republic presidential primary here in illinois tonight. rick santorum will finish second leaving newt gingrich and ron paul to slug it out for third place. it's too early to say how the candidates will split up the 54 delegates that are up for grabs here in illinois today. but romney will certainly be able to pad his lead in the overall delegate race. coming into tonight's contest romney had amass 422 delegates more than santorum's 253. takes 1454 delegates to clinch the republic presidential nomination. one thing, bill, it seems like the economy drove the day.

it was a really big issue in the exit polls. and of the economy, the voters who said the economy was the most important, romney won 56% of those voters. so, mitt romney with a big win in illinois. as i said before. this delegate allocation is done by congressional district. 18 congressional districts throughout illinois we will continue to monitor. >> bill: leading santorum two to one it will be more than that when the dust clears. you have louisiana on saturday a primary in louisiana, correct? that's a conservative situation so you figure gingrich and santorum will do well down there. but, after that it's pretty much romney's field, right? i mean, then they go into a more moderate states, states that his economic message will probably have a little bit more credibility. so he is really only got one speed bump ahead, romney, and then you figure he wins california, states like that.

new york, the big delegate states. that's the way i'm seeing it here. but, is there anything else that i'm missing? >> bret: clearly, this was an important win for him tonight. there is one race coming in -- up in wisconsin. rick santorum could make a big stand there the votes along the wisconsin/illinois border suggest romney did well up there, at least early. that suggests that it might bleed into wisconsin as well. so wisconsin is on april 3rd. the same day that washington, d.c. has a primary as well. santorum is not on the ballot there. you are right. this starts to roll down hill if romney does well in a number of different states all together. >> bill: all right. bret baier thank you very much. let's go over real quick to the stossel matter segment tonight. congressman ron paul republic from wisconsin has released the g.o.p.'s proposed budget for next year. cut 503 trillion next decade

according to the president's proposal it would change 60's brackets to two. 25% top. 10% bottom. -- democrats already opposing, no surprise there what happens in congress just can't get a deal. here with doomsday scenario fox business anchor john stossel. what if they continue these parties. rampant spending there are mandatory cuts that are going to kick in. >> maybe. >> bill: what happens? what happens to the dollar? what happens to the economy? >> i think the likeliest case is that the government, they could stiff us. they could say we are not going to pay for the stuff we have promised. but we older people vote they are not going to stiff us so they will print more money. >> bill: print more money. the debt doesn't come down. >> easy to pay off because the dollar isn't worth what it was. this is from zimbabwe, 100

trillion-dollar bill. and this is what. >> bill: that's what we are going to have. >> i hope not. >> bill: if your currency goes down the drain. we all hope not. but it certainly, absolutely could happen. if the fed keeps printing money. i don't want dollars anymore. i'm going to go to the euro or go to gold or go to the british pound or whatever i'm going to go to. all of our savings, everything we have in the bank. >> gone. >> bill: is eroded because we have dollars based upon 2012 rates. >> a savings account and a loaf of bread may now cost a thousand bucks. cost $300 billion in sim back way. >> bill: everything we import in the united states rises in price. this is what is happening to oil prices now. opec wants more dollars because a dollar isn't worth even what it was three years ago. this is what i am trying to get across to people. this budget thing this is big. >> this is very big. that's why it's good that paul ryan, you said congressman ron paul, actually. >>

>> bill: i'm sorry. i'm delirious tonight. >> at least starting a conversation about this and, you know, obama would increase the deficits, ryan's plan would eventually lower. >> bill: 9.6 if they could get it under control. i don't know if the voters are going to pay attention to it. stossel. we may have to go door to door together. >> this is big. >> bill: it is. absolutely vital that voters understand what's at play, which is why we did the talking points memo off the top. john stossel, everybody. thanks for coming. in is it legal the army sergeant murdering 16 afghans. florida teenager gunned down in the for no apparent reason. legal is next. ohhh my head, ohhh. [ speaking in japanese ] yeah, do you have anything for a headache... like excedrin, ohhh, bayer aspirin... ohh, no no no. i'm not having a heart attack, it's my head. no, bayer advanced aspirin, this is made for pain. [ male announcer ] bayer advanced aspirin has microparticles, enters the bloodstream fast,

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with the help of the one person who can. a certified financial planner professional. cfp. let's make plan. >> bill: thanks for staying with us. i'm bill o'reilly. in the is it legal segment tonight, two very important stories. 70-year-old florida teenager shot to death by a neighborhood watch guy and now the feds are getting involved.

first, who is army staff sergeant robert bales and why did he murder 16 afghan civilians, at least he is being accused of that? here now attorneys and fox news analysts kimberly guilfoyle and lis wiehl. you know the lawyer representing bales, right? >> yes, from seattle. >> bill: you worked with him a long time ago. we now know that bales has had a number of run-ins with the authorities and did some kind b? >> yes. four. not a bankruptcy but a fraud situation. representing somebody as a stockbroker an older gentleman. he defrauded this person. >> bill: allegedly or did he do it. >> no an arbitrator says did he it did not receive a pen from from bales. 1.4 million from bales and the company he was working with that's the civil beef. in 2002 he assaulted a girlfriend, not the woman he is married to now. but he assaulted a girlfriend that case was dismissed but only after he took 20 hours of anger management.

so,. >> okay. so. >> then there were two driving violations, one was a hit and run. and that charge was dismissed as well. and another was a drunk driving. that charge was dismissed. so, when you look at his wrap sheet, there is really nothing on there that shows a charge that was followed through with a conviction. >> bill: no. but it is not a great resume. >> no. >> bill: let's put it that way, all right? he was portrayed initially guilfoyle as you probably know as, you know, solid, upstanding guy and how could this possibly happen? we are all shocked. then when you look into it -- we are not trying to convict anybody on television here. this is a very disturbing situation. >> it is. >> bill: it seems to me that bales' attorney is going to say, look, the guy had diminished capacity. he had four tours and he was, you know, post-traumatic stress, whatever it may be. that's all he has got, right? >> that's what perhaps the evidence may show. he has on gation to put that defense forward it is available in a military court and tribunal. he will say at the time this happened this is an individual

who had repeated deployments. did not want to go back to afghanistan. >> bill: do we know for a fact he didn't want to go to afghanistan? in iraq three times. >> his wife wanted his perhaps germany. did not want to go back to the middle east. he did suffer a traumatic brain injury when ied explosion and did he lose part of his foot during that time there secretary of defense to suggest that somebody is he closed to -- >> bill: partial brain injury and foot. >> he did pass the military fitness test to be deployed. >> bill: so that's the defense, right? >> right. >> bill: i don't want to do any more on it because it's not fair, you know, let the defense do what they do. you are absolutely right. is he entitled to his defense and we will see. all right, in florida they have a very strange law about carrying guns and using the weapons. explain that briefly for us. >> this is basically a law where it's called stand your ground law. if you are an individual out in a public place and you feel

that you could be subjected to death or great bodily injury, essentially some kind of felonious assault, do you not have a duty to retreat. can you stand your ground and defend yourself. >> bill: with a gun. >> yes. about. >> bill: that you are licensed to carry. >> use deadly force it necessary. >> bill: you have to be licensed to carry. >> otherwise you face a violation for carrying an illegal weapon. >> bill: in florida you can carry fairly easily. it's not a hard state. you are carrying, somebody coming at you to threaten you you can use a weapon to protect yourself. >> right. >> bill: a guy named george zimmerman a neighborhood watch guy, he takes advantage of the law. here is the 911 tape.

>> bill: all right. and the 17-year-old boy gets killed. he shoots him, right? in the state of florida, along with 17 other states, there is a stand your ground law, but that doesn't -- means you don't have to retreat. it doesn't mean you can't go after somebody. >> bill: facts of the case, trayvon martin carrying a gun. >> no. carrying a bunch of skittles. >> bill: ease, easy, easy. >> sorry. >> bill: candy. >> candy and ice tea. >> had he had a record. >> not that we know of. >> bill: clean. >> he is suspended from school we don't know why but not a criminal record. >> not for conduct. >> bill: part of the 911 call is a neighbor who was observing. this and the neighbor felt that there was trouble brewing. has that been -- any other

evidence there from the neighbor? >> okay. no. what you have is just people saying what they heard at the time but there is key evidence that could come in to both this criminal investigation and a civil wrongful death lawsuit if t is brought. keep in mind there are two joint investigations. doj and fbi. >> bill: on the record what we have and what i have got to run here. >> girlfriend heard that the boy was saying that he was afraid essentially that somebody was coming up to him trayvon martin and this guy is staring at me. run. >> bill: no evidence that trayvon martin, 17 was doing anything wrong at all. >> none. >> none. >> not at all. >> bill: that's what we wanted to establish. the feds are involved because the state of florida has not charged him. the county has not charged him. the feds are getting involved for the civil rights beef. and we hope that justice is done. absolutely, ladies. right back with charles krauthammer who will recap the political day for us. and, then, michael moore being heckled by the occupiers. isn't that interesting? moments away. erything.

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>> bill: back of the book segment tonight. get right to fox news political analyst charles krauthammer standing by in washington, d.c. i just said to bret baier a few minutes ago after louisiana on saturday there doesn't seem to be any speed bumps for romney standing in his way. he should be able to take on some momentum. am i wrong. >> no, you are right for two reasons. geography and there is sort of structure of the campaign. the geography is that we are going to go to maryland and northeast to new york, connecticut, rhode island, delaware, those states are obvious romney states. winner take all. if and when romney wins he gets all the delegates and that's when you could really establish the spread between

you and number two. >> bill: all right. so, in your opinion, doesn't seem to be any stopping mitt romney right now unless there is some kind of thing unforeseen thing? >> i think if you look up the word inexessential in webster's. you will see romney in illinois smiling. >> bill: all right. now, newt gingrich, he will stay in through louisiana and then he will pack it. he doesn't have enough money to go. really no reason for him to continue, is there? >> well, on the other hand, what's the cost of staying in? >> bill: he has got to have money and travel around and pay his staff, things like that. he is not going to spend his own money. >> he can go southwest. it's not a big deal. show up on election day. get a little free television. >> bill: how is he going to pay his guys? >> look, if i were him, would have already gone. i'm not him. he says he wants to be in tamp parks perhaps he will be in tampa. >> bill: he will be in tampa one way or the other he will be there. >> after a week or two he is not a factor it's safe to say. >> bill: rick santorum, he is another story because you

basically have the center running as a conservative when he believes that conservatives need a voice and need a platform so he can pressure romney to continue to go to the right. i believe that's why rick santorum will stay in. >> i'm not sure that's what he thinks because, no matter how much he pressures romney to go right, right now. obviously romney is going to do what all candidates do when they wrap up the nomination. they go to the center. whether they are on the left or the right. that's the script that's what you do. romney is doing well in the midwest. he won ohio. he won in michigan he now wins in illinois now is i not going to win in illinois general election. obama got that weak in the south but only in the republic race. he is going to win the south in the general election.

look the logic is. this he is the moderate. santorum is the guy on the right. if he wins these states, who is the more likely to win the independents in the general election? just logical. >> bill: if you were romney, who would you pick as your v.p.? >> rubio without a question. marco rubio of florida. >> bill: rubio would be -- all the republic analysts -- >> -- he brings youth, he brings energy, he brings intelligence and he brings a lot of hispanic votes. >> bill: he says he is not going to do it. assume he doesn't do it, then where do you go? >> he will do it. nobody says no. everybody says no now, nobody will say no when the nominee asks you so much is at stake, you have got a chance for the big time, of course you will do it. >> bill: would christie be a viable number two? >> christie is flammable, you know, he is a bit risky. i'm not sure being -- is he a moderate in most issues.

is he a guy from jersey. i'm not sure you want a moderate and a moderate on the ticket. i think you want somebody who will bring, say, a florida vote. you might go to a portman who senator rob portman. represents ohio. if you are looking for a state the way that kennedy went for johnson to bring him texas and that's what brought him over the top. the field is narrow. go where you are weak and for obama that means -- for romney you want somebody who is a contrast. young, articulate. florida, hispanic. rubio or perhaps somebody who will bring you ohio. there aren't a lot of choices here. >> bill: all right. charles krauthammer, everybody. we appreciate you as always. pinheads and patriots on deck. occupy protesters turn on michael moore. is it karma? p and p just over two minutes away. [ man ] yeah, scott. i was just about to use... that's a bunch of ground-up paper, lad! scotts ez seed uses the nest seed, fertilizer,

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nice. >> you sometimes find me irritating? can that be possible? they don't know. i'm flabbergasted.

>> franklin, one of the wisest americans. >> i appreciate that, that's very nice of you. miller and i roll into indianapolis on june 22. then segue up to chicago the next day. the evening show is sold out. but the matinee, there are tickets. check out all of the bolder, fresher shows on bill o'reilly dot-com.

>> yes, you are, dan. far to the left, michael moore trying to ingrateiate himself with the occupy wall street protesters. >> $50 million to michael moore. >> get your picture taken, $50 million. >> that's not nice. mr. moore didn't have any comment and everyone involved is a pinhead. that's it for us tonight. also, we would like to you spout off about the factor, from anywhere in the world. bill o'reilly@foxnews.com. word of the day, dont be a vi visi